SPARX: A modeling system for Solar Energetic Particle Radiation Space Weather forecasting

Ensemble downscaling in coupled solar wind-magnetosphere modeling for space weather forecasting

Advanced forecasting of space weather requires simulation of the whole Sun-to-Earth system, which necessitates driving magnetospheric models with the outputs from solar wind models. This presents a fundamental difficulty, as the magnetosphere is sensitive to both large-scale solar wind structures, which can be captured by solar wind models, and small-scale solar wind "noise," which is far below...

Structure and Dynamics of the Electron Radiation Belts: Implications for Space Weather Modeling and Forecasting

Forecasting Space Weather

Forecasting space weather events presents the ultimate challenge to a space physics model. Not only should physical constraints be satisfied, but also practical issues such as timeliness, accuracy, and reliability must be adequately addressed. To address these needs, modern space weather forecasters and users rely on a great variety of space weather models, ranging from simple regressions and e...

Viewing radiation signatures of solar energetic particles in interplanetary space

A current serious limitation on the studies of solar energetic particle (SEP) events is that their properties in the inner heliosphere are studied only through in situ spacecraft observations. Our understanding of spatial distributions and temporal variations of SEP events has come through statistical studies of many such events over several solar cycles. In contrast, flare SEPs in the solar co...

Solar Radiation Forecasting Model

The prediction of hourly solar radiation data has important consequences in many solar applications (Markvart, Fragaki & Ross, 2006). Such data can be regarded as a time series and its prediction depends on accurate modeling of the stochastic process. The computation of the conditional expectation, which is in general non-linear, requires the knowledge of the high order distribution of the samp...